Beijing admits to, apologies for, submarine incursion

After several days of speculation, Chinese authorities have conceded that a ‘mystery’ submarine that was chased from of Japanese wasters earlier this week belongs to China.

The submarine was shadowed by a Destroyer and a specialised P3-C surveillance aircraft from the MSDF when entered Japanese waters from the direction of Guam and triggered a rare naval alert not called since a pair of North Korean intelligence ships approached the Noto peninsular, Ishikawa Prefecture, in 1999.

Chinese authorities confirmed yesterday that the submarine belonged to China and offered a rare apology, saying that "technical reasons" had caused a Chinese submarine to unintentionally stray into Japanese waters.

Though Wu Dawei, China’s Vice Foreign Minister, conveyed his countries apology directly to the Japanese ambassador to Beijing, he did not offer any further public explanation as to the nature of the "technical reasons", or hint as to whether they were administrative or mechanical in nature.

The relationship between China and Japan always been tense because of elements within China that regularly seek rouse anti Japanese sentiment over war crimes committed by Japanese military forces more than 50 years ago, but have been further magnified in recent years that have seen China laying claim to as yet untapped gas reserves that lie within waters controlled by Japan, and an incident where Chinese nationalists tried to claim to the disputed Japanese Senkaku islands and their surrounding fisheries in the name of their country.

While hostilities have traditionally been one way, with little anti Chinese sentiment existing in Japan, there is a growing voice among Japanese politicians that China has been using a recycling its favored version of history to force aid and economic concessions from Japan, and anger from Japanese citizens that China is still promoting the type of institutionalized anti Japanese sentiments that culminated this summer with Chinese soccer supporters booing the Japanese team during the Asian cup as well as throwing projectiles and defacing the national.

The incursion also comes as Japan worries that it may be forced into any conflict over Chinese Taiwan because of US military forces stationed throughout Japan and its islands, and China calls for consideration over proposals to relocate a company headquarters of a rapid reaction force from Washington, to a base close to Tokyo.

The last week’s submarine incursion has served to raise political temperatures between Tokyo and Beijing, particularly among Japan’s political right, some of who are increasingly beginning to voice that China is becoming a military threat.

The submarines proximity to US military facilities on Japanese Okinawa has also served to strain relations further and to raise questions as to what China’s true motives might be if it were not an accidental incursion.

There has been speculation among political and media sources that the incursion might have been a military probe by China to scout possible maritime weaknesses surrounding Japan and to push Japan’s Maritime Self Defence Force into action so as to gauge their response times and capabilities, which many feel have been allowed to slip since the end of the submarine threat from the Soviet Union

There has also been some speculation that the incursion may have been meant as a warning to US forces operation out of Okinawa and the main Japanese islands, that in the event of open hostilities over Chinese Taiwan, Chinese submarines have sufficient reach to attack US forces before they can render assistance.

As well as travelling through Japanese waters, the submarine may have ventured close to, or transited though areas patrolled by the US 7th fleet.

Other sources have indicated that the submarine may have been mapping the ocean floor to assist future underwater navigation by Chinese submarines in the event of open hostilities over Chinese Taiwan, which lies to the south of Japan, or to assist efforts to gas drill for natural gas in waters claimed by both China and Japan.

Several days prior to the submarine entering Japanese waters, two Chinese salvage/rescue vessels, at least one of which specializing in Submarine operations, were sighted in international waters to the south of Japan, lending weight to the idea that the submarine suffered a technical malfunction and had to take a shortcut through Japanese territory.

The submarine is known to be nuclear powered and thought to be a 091 Han-class attack submarine, which has a history of reactor difficulties that include reliability issues and potentially serious overheating.

There is some debate among military analysts as to whether a Han-class submarine has ever left Chinese waters or has the capacity to reliably operate as far out from the Chinese mainland as Japanese Okinawa.

Ebata Kenji a military analyst speaking through the media expressed surprise that Chinese forces would use a Han-class for a deliberate incursion, the bulk and noise of a Han-class submarine make it easy to detect and its interior design and temperature would such a long voyage uncomfortable for the crew.

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