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Bigger isn't always better

posted Wednesday, 11 January 2006
At a time of heightened global tension over terrorism and militarism, when countries like America and Britain are fast seeking to bulk up their armies with new recruits and reservists in order to meet their international commitments. It seems rather incongruous that China, an emerging military superpower, should be doing the exact opposite. However, that is exactly what has happened.

According to reports, released through China's state controlled media, the PLA; China's de-facto military, have announced the completion of a downsizing exercise which has seen it shed some 200,000 men-at-arms.

Officially, the troop reductions were made to "improve the quality and structure of the forces and improve troops combat readiness" and are known come as part of a three year restructuring plan which was announced in 2003, which is, in itself, part of a greater military realignment that has seen China's armed forced reduced in size by approximately 1.7 million men over the last two decades.

Reports indicate that most of the cuts have been made among ground troop, and are thought to be centered on infantry and other low-level 'foot soldiers', rather than officers, engineers or other specialists.

Estimate now put the PLA's total number of men-at-between arms 2.3 and 2.5 million. Significantly lower than the 4.2 million men that it is reported to have possessed during the cold war.

Paradoxical Reasoning

While some might look at China's manpower reductions and point to them as being an indicator that China is becoming less hostile, and other's may be inclined to celebrate them as being a sign that China's military strength is crumbling under the weight of its economic commitments, more informed China watchers have however been quick to point out that, far from making China's military weaker, these reductions actually serve to strengthen China's military hand, and to bring it closer to being a force able to directly challenge the other powers operating in Asia.

Less is More

While, at first, it may seem paradoxical - reducing troop number to increase military strength - it make eminent tactical sense for China.

By reducing troop numbers, Beijing has been able to make substantial cost savings. Savings which have been ploughed back into the military budget. Allowing China to purchase more advanced equipment for its remaining troops, to concentrate its training efforts in more specialist areas; including special forces and electronic warfare, and to boost its R&D spending. All without necessitating an increase in total military budget.

Savings include reduced spending on:
  • Troop wages
  • Military training
  • Combat and non combat equipment
  • Barracks, food and lodging
Additionally, by reducing the number of footsoldiers under its command, Beijing has been able to make substantial cost savings on equipment storage facilities, equipment maintenance and administration. Thus streamlining its procurement lines and reducing the overall overheads involved in keeping troops which are essentially idle, and allowing it to shorten both its chain of command and its communications chain.

Alternate Angles

While military sources, both in the east and west, including those within China, have summarily backed up the principle - that China has indeed been cutting troop number in order to free up resources and to raise the overall quality of its forces - there have been a number of alternative opinions expressed as to the reasoning behind China's troop reductions and the motives that spurred such radical departure from the traditional Chinese military thinking that 'manpower alone would allow China to wear down an opponent through constant attrition'.

As such, some observers have voiced that Chinese troop reductions may in actual fact contain a large element of self-protection, and come in response to a very real fear; 'That a large domestic army, under the control of politically ambitious Generals, might posse a greater threat to Beijing than an external force.'

Sound Reasoning

Though such a fear is one of the contributing factors as to why a number of countries, most nobably Britain, have never historically maintained a large standing army, and it is known that there have been fears of mutiny within China's armed fores in the past, in this instance, it is widely believed that this fear is only  secondary or even tertiary concern.

As such cost cutting is still though to be the primary factor behind Chinese troop reductions.

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1. MeiZhongTai left...
Wednesday, 11 January 2006 11:33 pm :: http://meizhongtai.blogspot.com

An American general, when asked about the Global Defense Posture Review stated that one must evaluate military forces by "capabilities, not numbers." Likewise, your analysis is dead-on that these cuts make the PLA a more formidable fighting force (especially since mobility is so low for the current oversized force). Further cuts will likely follow.


2. ACB left...
Thursday, 12 January 2006 12:01 am :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

Right up until the gulf war, it was China's official military phelosify that it would wage a war of attrition against an enemy (most Chinese are still taught that this was how China supposidly beat Japan), and that it didn't need a mobile force because it would have enough forces to wage a gurilla bassed war over much of the country.


3. GZ Guy left...
Friday, 13 January 2006 12:13 pm

Actually, it won't be "foot soldier" grunt types. Rather it will be the useless dancers, singers and performers that do those silly New Years propaganda programs and serve (probably) as a mobile buffet brothel for the higher ranks and CMC/CCP leaders.

How much seriously real "downsizing" has truly occured since Jiang Zemin mandated that the PLA divest its business interests? Not much. What was a colonel or senior NCO found himself suddenly wearing civilian duds but "managing" a factory or trading company and still driving around in his PLA purchased Audi A8 with PLA registration plates.

I'm convinced the PLA is the best equipped army in the world when it comes to hotels, businesses, luxury imported automobiles, and karaoke bars!


4. The Angry Chinese Blogger left...
Friday, 13 January 2006 5:21 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

I sense much skepticism within you young Padawan, seek further guidance you must.

Ever since WWII, Chinese communists maintained a military policy based near exclusively on the deployment of a massed 'army of the people', believing that a large low technology force could be gathered rapidly and deployed against an enemy in a war of attrition that would allow it to wear down a superior enemy.

Much of this is based on the false premise that Red army forces used this tactic to defeat Japan (in reality, it was the US who bled Japan dry in the Pacific, forcing Japan to redirect forces and supplies out of China, and the Russians who defeated the bulk of Japanese forces which remained in China), and on the correct premise that it was used to defeat the US in North Korea.

Anyway, because of this premise, China maintained a HUGE core of semi trained soldiers; people who could march, hold a rifle, and be ordered to charge a Japanese or American machine gun nest until it ran out of ammunition.

However, in later years it became apparent to Chinese leaders that this army was quite expensive, and that it was sitting on its butts all day, so they cut troop numbers.

After the Gulf War, China also realized that the US had the capability to drop laser guided bombs on its barracks and C&C resources, effectively blinding or destroying the PLA without ever coming into range of its ground troops rifles (a war of attrition based on ground troops is very hard to fight when your enemy uses guided missiles instead of grunts), and that by getting shot of these low level soldiers, they could afford more AA missiles and better radars, which would actually be useful when fighting the US.

The number of troop reductions is very clear, and China has been very open about this because foreigners often just see the reductions and falsely believe that this is a sign of weakness rather than a sign of modernization.

Let me put things this way, China had over four million men-at-arms it now has just under 2.5 million. That's a lot less men and a lot fewer barracks that US spy satellites can see.

“I'm convinced the PLA is the best equipped army in the world when it comes to hotels .....” Actually, the PLA is well known for branching out, it has been one of China's largest free market investors, it runs everything from munition factories to hotels, and it runs them for a profit, not just for the benefit of the PLA.

The US military is similarly involved, though more indirectly, it is one of the largest providers of college grants for R&D in the US. It also has substantial other holdings made through contractors such as Boeing. However, because the US is a VERY capitalist country, the US military often uses contractors and outsources things like front-line and base brothels and bars to the private sector.

I suppose that you are also going to try to tell me that American Generals drive around in 4 cylinder European town cars with 20,000,000 KM to the gallon and stay in 2 star Motels.

A lot of those 'dancers' are actually female PLA.


5. GZ Guy left...
Tuesday, 17 January 2006 12:04 pm

Actually, yes. In many cases, American generals, when not on official business, must drive their own privately purchased cars. Not a S600 provided by the "danwei" for them to carry over conveniently into retirement or business...