BMJ: China's gender imbalance is wide, and is growing.

There are a great many things in China that can be considered 'open secrets' these days. Things that every body knows about, but which people don't like to speak of. One of the most well known of these open secrets is that there aren't nearly as many Chinese women, when compared to Chinese men, as their used to be. Indeed, the ratio of women to men on the Mainland has been in steady decline for years, and is now accelerating as increased wealth and access to advanced medical technologies have allowed more and more Chinese families to ensure that their one legally permitted child is a son.

However, while it has been widely known that the Mainland is experiencing a growing gender gap, and while there has been rampant speculation - Sometimes well informed, sometimes not - regarding the implications of this disparity there have been comparatively few independent studies done to ascertain the full scope of the problem.It's not so much that Beijing has covered things up. In fact it not openly admits that the gap exists, but also to having strong concerns about it. It's more that the topic remains controversial enough for those who research it to face opposition from leaders in the provinces with a particular problem.

Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule, and one such exception is a recent report published by the internationally respected British Medical Journal.

The report, titled "China’s excess males, sex selective abortion, and one child policy: analysis of data from 2005 national census survey" was compiled by researchers from Zhejiang University and Zhejiang Normal University, in conjunction with the UK based University College London, and it makes stark reading. It concludes that the gender balance is wide, and is growing wider every year. With the Central and Southern provinces being the worst effected, but with the non Han regions of Tibet and Xinjiang showing near negligible imbalances. Partly due to opposition to abortion, partly to a lower cultural attachment to having a son, and partly due to the lack affordable access to gender screening medical technologies

Overall sex ratios were high across all age groups and residency types, but they were highest in the 1-4 years age group, peaking at 126 (95% confidence interval 125 to 126) in rural areas. Six provinces had sex ratios of over 130 in the 1-4 age group. The sex ratio at birth was close to normal for first order births but rose steeply for second order births, especially in rural areas, where it reached 146 (143 to 149). Nine provinces had ratios of over 160 for second order births. The highest sex ratios were seen in provinces that allow rural inhabitants a second child if the first is a girl. Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males. One particular variant of the one child policy, which allows a second child if the first is a girl, leads to the highest sex ratios. Conclusions In 2005 males under the age of 20 exceeded females by more than 32 million in China, and more than 1.1 million excess births of boys occurred. China will see very high and steadily worsening sex ratios in the reproductive age group over the next two decades.

A full version of the report can be downloaded Here, or viewed directly on the BMJ website .

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