China's ticking time bomb?

When foreigners think of China they tend to think of it being a highly restricted country where state oppression means that public demonstrations are rare, and those that happen at all are orchestrated by the state against people whom it is acceptable to demonstrate against: the Japanese, for example.

However the truth is quite different. While it is true that China isn't known for the kind of  grass roots civil campaign that tend to spring up in countries like the US, it is also true that China is increasingly seeing mass demonstration the likes of which are rarely seen in the West. Demonstrations in which a sudden and explosive eruption of public anger can see hundreds, and often thousands, of people converging on symbols of authority or local corruption and practically tearing it apart with their bare hands. Indeed in one incident in 2007 alone almost 20,000 people battered Chinese security forces in Hunan province in response to a local incident, and there are few China watchers who haven't heard of the village of Dongzhou, and whom don't know what went on there, or why.

The Cause?

To the casual onlooker it is easy to say that these events, these mass disturbances or sudden eruptions of civil unrest, are usually caused by an act of corruption by local authorities or an act of brutality by local security forces: Somebody is badly beaten for complaining about a local businessman and the police do nothing, or maybe they were they ones who were doing the beating. A local leader confiscates some farmland land so that a factory can be build, pocketing a small fortune in bribes in the process but offers a pittance in compensation to displaced residence. Indeed, any of a 101 things that should have gone out with the feudal era, but which are rampant in post-Mao China.

However as any analyst or China watcher will tell you, it often pays to look deeper. Indeed, even a basic understanding of the modern Chinese people will tell you that everybody is so used to being dumped on from the top that you would be hard pressed to find a single act of corruption or a single violation of somebody else's rights that could get 200 Chinese out of bed, let alone get of Mainlanders 2000 to fight a running battle with security forces.

When you get right down to it, and you finally look to the roots of China's unrest you will often find that the event over which people are protesting is merely a match dropped on a long trail of gunpowder that leading up to the powder keg that is unrest.

Powder keg?

One key denominator in the above determination is the people whom are usually found on the front line of the unrest. Or, to be more specific, their demographic. By and large, the people whom make up the core of any significant incident of unrest in China are usually rural or provincial poor. Farmers, residents of satellite townships, and so on. In short, People whom make a living but little more, and whose main interest in life is to get by for one more day.

As a group such people whom have been largely left out of the bright side of China's economic boom, but they still suffer from the many aspects of its dark side. Such as official corruption, pollution, and higher food prices. This state of affairs has created a general undercurrent of anger and resentment that remains simmering beneath the surface of China's population, rarely coming to a head. Except of course when the right trigger even come along and hits home with the right number of people in the right place, at the right time. BANG a long suffering group of people explode into unrest. 

A Gathering Storm?

Of course, all that was said above is said in regards to the China of yesterday. Maybe 1998 though early 2008, if that. From where ACB is standing China's problems with civil unrest look set to become much worse.

Why is this, you may ask? Well, the reason is simple. Up until now the main players in China's unrest have been the rural and provincial poor. Nameless, faceless people with few expectations in life whom have become so used being downtrodden and marginalized that it takes a long time for the pressure to build up to an explosive appex. However, with the world economy going south, new players look set to join the mix. People whom had hopes and dreams of a better life in a new China. People whom are now finding that the opportunities that were gradually opening up to them are now closing fast. These people look set to be even more volotile. Parlty because they have had their hopes dashed, and partly because they have not been tempered to expect so little out of life as the rural poor have in the first place. Their anger will rise faster and it will rise further.

Things to Come?

ACB predicts that if things continue the way that they are China is going to see increasing numbers of riots by workers whom wake up one day to find that their bosses have vanished, along with their payroles, and increased incidents of unrest caused by migrant workers who simply cannot face the prospect of returning home without the fortunes that they left to seek. ACB can also see an increasing backlash coming against schools and colleges as both student and parent come to realize that the marvelous prospects that they were promised are fast sinking as economic growth in China slows, and as economic growth around the world stalls.

Some of this is evident already, but how much worse it gets remains to be seen. One thing is certain though, that the heavier the hand of government is with these people, the more likely they are to explode.

The clock is ticking. It was ticking when China's rural poor started to rise up against pollution and illegal land seizures, and it was ticking when  workers started demanding more rights. Now, however, it is ticking with increasing urgency, and the echo in being heard in the wealthier cities and towns of China's South and east coasts.

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