Flame of Shame; Flashpoint Japan?

You probably don't need to be a China watcher to know that the 2008 Olympic torch procession has become something of a hot topic of late, with pro Tibet/anti China demonstrators dogging the torches passage as it journeys round the world from Athens to Beijing. You probably also don't need to be a China watcher to know that many Chinese have taken exception to these protests and have staged protests of their own.

Mainland View?

So far, the bulk of the Chinese reaction has to the world wide protests over its hosting of the 2008 Olympics either been vocal but otherwise harmless, or have been all talk and no action.

However, if concerns held by some China watchers come to fruition, we may only be seeing the start of a much more vociferous - and potentially much more explosive - as the Olympic torch moves surely and steadily towards its rendezvous with a nation that is already a symbol of hatred to many Chinese.

In the words of this China watcher. "If you think the Chinese people have been unforgiving over protests in England, France and America, imagine how they will react to protests in Japan".

Indeed, there is very real concern that Chinese might react in a 'less than peaceful way' if they are embarrassed by protectors in Japan. But are concerns over the potential for a backlash likely to be reflected by an actual backlash, or will the event pass off peacefully?

President

Though as yet on a small scale, several incidents of Chinese backlash against foreign sentiment have already been observed. Much of this backlash has come in response to Western media coverage during the March-April period which - according to many Chinese - was bias against the Mainland because it concentrated too heavily on abuses committed by Beijing against Tibet and on pro Tibet/anti China demonstrations during the torch processions in London, Paris and San Fransisco, rather than concentrating on China's perspective of the Sino-Tibetan dynamic and on the torch procession itself.

Though present in some form for over a generation, anti-Western media sentiment over recent issues first emerged on Chinese Internet sites during resent unrest in Tibet. With nationalists expressing sentiment against the big Western broadcasts - specifically CNN and the BBC - on message boards and then moving on to specially designed websites denouncing the big Western media outlets as bias against China.

Protest later  spilled over into the real world. First in the form of calls for Chinese to boycott western goods and stores, and then by the holding of protests in China, with some demonstrators holding anti-independence rallies in a number of Chinese cities as a general protest against Tibet, and others picketing French interests as a direct protest against France's threat to boycott the Olympics and against the alleged pro-Tibet stance of some of the interests.

Chinese and overseas Chinese have also held rallies in the West, expressing their anger directly to the agencies concerned and to their host governments.

In one incident an estimated 1000+ Chinese students held demonstrations being held outside the offices of the BBC's Manchester office. In another incident a further 500 protested gathered outside of Britain's houses of Parliament: the seat of the UK government. Both groups were angry about perceived Western media bias. A position which some China watchers have described as 'not being entirely without merit', especially in the case of conservative US broadcasters who have long expressed views unfavorable to Beijing due to its advances on US interests.


Protests against Western media coverage were also held in Paris and Berlin. In a related incident, several thousand Chinese and overseas Chinese gathered in Los Angeles to picket CNN, after front man Jack Cafferty made remarks that many Chinese and overseas Chinese felt offensive.

Anti-Japanese Sentiment?

Although Japan has almost no recent history of staging anti-Chinese demonstrations, and largely reframes from making statement in favor of Tibetan independence, China watchers have expressed very real concern that Mainland feelings over any pro-Tibet/anti-China demonstrations that do occur during the torch procession could be magnified significantly due existing tensions in the Sino-Japanese relationship. Potentially leading to an explosive backlash amongst Chinese nationalist who combine their existing feeling over Sino-Japanese issues with their feelings over protests in Japan: Leading them to react severely to protests in Japan that would otherwise rate only a moderate reaction had they occurred elsewhere.

Worst Case?

With the anti-Japanese riots of 2005 on their minds, some China watchers have noted that, in a worst case scenario, anger triggered by a small incident in Japan or by an unfavorable remark by a senior Japanese official could potentially be significantly magnified by lingering anti-Japanese sentiment in China and by and general feeling of social unrest amongst young Chinese nationalists. Leading to rioting and attacks on Japanese interests in China as happened during previous unrest.

Real Concerns?

At present there is little or nothing to indicate that there will be disturbances during the torch procession on par with those that occurred in the West - a significant part of which is due to Japan having a culture that asways from public outbursts of anger, and due to the low number of Tibetan exiles living in Japan - however, a number of prominent groups have already begun to distance themselves as a precaution against trouble, and against any backlash that could follow.

According to the Western Media Olympic sponsor Coke Cola as, this week, issued a statement confirming that they are to significantly scale back their presence when torch procession when it passes through Japan. Including the scrapping of plans to run a Coke Cola branded float ahead of the torch. Media reports cite officials representatives of Coke Cola as saying that the company was reducing its pretense due to "security concerns". Though they did not elaborate on exact nature of these concerns

Coke Cola's announcement comes after Electronics giants Samsung Group and Lenovo announced that they will be pulling their presence at the procession. Officially, both companies cites "financial" concerns as being their primary motive. China watchers have questioned whether this was a comment at the cost-to-benefit ration of taking part, or whether it was out of fears that their brands might suffer if the Japanese leg of the procession became associated with anger over demonstrations, and thus suffered in China.

Coke Cola's announcement also comes shortly after Nagano's  善光寺 (A temple, known in the West as Zenkoji) released a statement saying that it was pulling out of the procession. According to Temple officials and representatives of the Nagano government the Temple's actions were in response security concerns should events take a less pleasing turn, and due to feelings of solidarity over Tibet.


The Temple was originally due to host the start of the torch procession but had received many letters urging it to pull out.

Shortly after its announcement the Temple's grounds were vandalized by unknown assailants. Local police have not confirmed that this was an act of reprisal by anti Tibet/pro China factions, though acts of vandalism against holy sites are rare in Japan, leading conclusions to be drawn by observers.

2008?

Although there may be no trouble during the Japan leg of the 2008 torch procession, and no resulting backlash, China watchers have voiced that the possibility of there being trouble is likely of concern to Beijing.

While Beijing has acted to foster anti-Japanese sentiment in the past it is not in its interest for there to be a violent backlash against Japan at the present time. Firstly, any backlash in China would reflect poorly on Beijing during the run up to the Olympics. Both providing further material for the big Western media to broadcast as a sign of China's troubles and divisions in the run up to Beijing 2008, and because of the danger that it poses to its own authority.

2005 saw significant anti-Japanese riots in the Mainlanders as Chinese nationalists combined their anger over contemporary issues with simmering resentment over historic issues. Initially Beijing offered their tacitly support riots as a way of channeling feelings of anger an alienation felt by Chinese youths away from domestic issues and towards an external focal point. However, Beijing was soon forced to rethink its compliance when it became clear that the international community were more engaged by the fact that Chinese were rioting than by the reasons why they were rioting. Leading foreigners to see Japan as the victim of modern day Chines aggression instead of sympathizing with China as the victim of past Japanese aggression. A situation which is unpalatable to most Chinese: whom historically see themselves as victims rather than aggressors.

However, despite the extreme loss of face, Beijing continued its tacit support until officials realized that the demonstrators had gained significant enough momentum to take action against them for their perceived lack of action against Japan.

As such, China watchers have voiced that Beijing is likely to be reticent to let such a situation emerge again, especially so close to Beijing 2008. though it is not yet clear what Beijing would do should there be a backlash against Japan.

Beijing traditionally acts to prevent any groups or movement from gaining sufficient momentum to make demands on it. This applies regardless of the groups purpose, origin or intentions, and has previously seen the suppression of religious and ethnic groups as well as the state mandated stunting of trade unions and land rights groups. Much of Beijing's efforts against Tibet have been aimed at weakening national attachment to causes, often faith centered, that tibetans could rally round.

Actual protests

The Japan traditionally  asways from holding public demonstrations, there have been some pro-Tibet/anti-China demonstrations in Japan over the last month or so, though they have been lower key that those in Europe. One of the most notable took place on 16 March when pro-Tibet/anti-China campaigners marched through 代々木公園 (Yoyogi Park) in Shibuya ward, to draw attention to China's treatment of Tibetans.


The march was held as part of the lead up to the "Tibetan Olympics", an 'alternative sporting' even to be held in Dharamsala, India, in Mid-late May. The event is organized by the same group as the annual Miss Tibet Pageant.

tags: china  japan  unrest  riot  beijing  tokyo  

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