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Independence or Bust: Brinkmanship across the Taiwan Striates

« H E News and Politics :: Sino-American :: Sino-Japanese :: Sino-Taiwanese :: News and Perspectives :: email
posted Monday, 27 February 2006

In a move that is sure to raise tempers in Beijing, Chen Shui-Bian, the democratically elected President of Chinese-Taiwan, has announced that he plans to terminate the Sino-Taiwanese 國家統一委員會 (National Reunification Council), a body set up in 1990, to promote reunification between the disputed island and the mainland.
  "The National Unification Council will cease functioning and the budget no longer be appropriated," he told reporters.

Chen Shui-bian, President, Chinese Taiwan

In a speech made earlier today, Chen decried the body as an affront to Taiwanese democracy, which was concerned with nothing more than imposing an undemocratic solution on the people by taking decisions about their future out of their hands.
  "It deprives the Taiwan people's rights to freely decide on cross-strait relations and the future direction of our country,"

President Chen

Describing them as being "[an] absurd products of an absurd era", Chen also announced that he would be scrapping 國家統一綱領 (The Guidelines for National Reunification), which were adopted in 1991, a year after the 國家統一委員會 (National Reunification Council) was set up to direct reunification efforts.

Breach of Promise

Chen's announcement comes after a pledge, know as 四不一沒有 (The Four Noes and One Without), that he made shortly after taking office in 2000.

Under 四不一沒有 (The Four Noes and One Without), Chen pledged that, so long as China did not use military force against the island, he would not:
  • Cede from the Mainland
  • Change Chinese-Taiwan's official title from "the Republic of China" to "the Republic of Taiwan",
  • Change the relationship between Chinese-Taiwan and the Mainland to a “State-State relationship"
  • Engage in the promotion of a referendum on reunification or independence
  • Nullify either the 國家統一委員會 (National Reunification Council) or the 國家統一綱領 (The Guidelines for National Reunification)
Beijing?

While the full repercussions of Chen's moves, to terminate the council, are not yet clear, China has already acted to denounce Chen. With the Taiwan Affairs Office, Beijing's de facto ambassadorial agent for the disputed island, branding his moves as being a dangerous “secessionist push” which is certain to “trigger a serious crisis across the Taiwan Straits”.

Wider Reach?

On top of the rise in tension between China and it's unwilling diplomatic dancing partner, Chen's announcement is sure to cause ripples among the other Asia Pacific stakeholders, particularly the Bush administration in Washington, and the 小泉 (Koizumi) administration in Tokyo.

At Present, Washington has substantial commitments to defend Chinese-Taiwan, in the event of military action from China, and has strong concerns that it would be impossible for it to escape involvement in any regional conflict. A fear that has been made all the more real by recent advances in Chinese military technology and training, which have brought China's armed forces up to a level where they could pose a serious challenge to US military supremacy in the region.

For this reason, Washington has been making increasingly strong diplomatic representations to Chen, over the past few months, requesting that he reduce his level of rhetoric for the sake of regional stability.

Similarly, Tokyo has strong concerns over the the possibility that it may be drawn into a regional conflict.

Such concerns stem, not only from Japan's proximity to the two protagonists, but also from the fact that America has a substantial military presence on Japanese-Okinawa and the home islands. A presence which would likely be the target first/retaliatory strikes by China in the event of a reagional conflict..

Independence or Bust

Although little more than speculation at this point, many China watchers have voiced the fear that Chen's increasingly aggressive anti-reunification stance may mean that he is planning to use the 2008 Olympic games, which are to be held in Beijing, as a shield - to protect the island from Chinese retaliation.

Were Chen to declare independence in the run up to the 2008 games, Beijing would be presented with three stark choices
  • To allow Taiwan to separate from the mainland without military intervention. An option which would loose Beijing the support of the Chinese people and the military; Potentially bringing down the Hu Administration.
  • To use force against the island immediately. An eventuality which would certainly result in an international boycott of the 2008 Olympic games; an event that China hopes to use as an international showcase for itself.
  • To wait until after the 2008 Olympics before moving militarily. By which time American would have been able to marshal its Pacific fleet in defense of the island; making a quick and clean “war of reunification” impossible.

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View Comments/Add a Comment (6)


1. sun bin left...
Tuesday, 28 February 2006 11:45 am :: http://sun-bin.blogspot.com

more likely option 3.

but if one thinks more about it, there is not much difference about 'american mobilization around the strait'. CCP just has to station the army across, and the cost for US is much higher if they persist. but more fundamental question is, would the US do so? as it was pointed out by many, US does not have the obligation to do so. it is only acting on its own interests.


2. ACB left...
Wednesday, 1 March 2006 12:12 am :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

As the three situations go, number three could pottentially be the bloodiest.

As I see it America and China would both assemble a large military force, with one creating a blockad around Taiwan and the other laying siege to it.

Then One of two things would happen

1) Both sides would realize that even if they did win, they would take one humungous kicking doing it, and they will both sit down and talk while the world soils its underpants. With the two sides eventually comming up with some face saving measure that stops the war but doesn't solve the problem.

2) One side will get spooked, move first thinking that the other has moves, and the misisles will start aflying.

China will fire on US bases in Okinawa to cut off US supply lines, Japan will panic over revenge, pasafism, duty and honor and the government will fall. China will also fire at US bases in Korea (the ones with in striking range of Beijing) leading to a frenzy there.

The world will soil its underpants, and half of the population of Taiwan will die horribly, no matter who wins.


3. ACB left...
Wednesday, 1 March 2006 12:20 am :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

"would the US do so? as it was pointed out by many, US does not have the obligation to do so. it is only acting on its own interests."

This isn't about legal obligation, it's about face.

Beijing pledged to attack Taiwan if it goes its own way and has whipped the people up into a nationalist frenzy about it. If Beijing doesn't act, the Hu administration risks being overthrown by nationalist elements within the government.

America, on the other hand sees itself as bein gthe world's policeman, and as the "Defender of Democracy". If it were to allow a democracy that it helped to found fall to commnism, it would go extremely badly with voters. Particularly as most Americans don't realize how powerful China is, and would see a refusal to intervine as a pandering to Beijing, or cowardice.

Put simply, the side government that doesn't act, will fall.


4. sfh left...
Sunday, 11 February 2007 1:30 pm

I am quite amused by the Taiwanese government's efforts in removing Chinese trace off so many aspects of Taiwanese society: Change the national title on the passport, rename many enterprises with Chinese sounding names, encourage Taiwan dialect, etc. etc...

Now I would make a suggestion to all the Taiwanese who don't consider themselves Chinese: From today on, don't use Mandarin, don't use the Chinese characters in their written communication.

Only after you are successful as a society in refraining from using those two things (Mandarin and Chinese characters) will I consider you anything but Chinese.


5. sfh left...
Sunday, 11 February 2007 1:31 pm

I am quite amused by the Taiwanese government's efforts in removing Chinese trace off so many aspects of Taiwanese society: Change the national title on the passport, rename many enterprises with Chinese sounding names, encourage Taiwan dialect, etc. etc...

Now I would make a suggestion to all the Taiwanese who don't consider themselves Chinese: From today on, don't use Mandarin, don't use the Chinese characters in their written communication.

Only after you are successful as a society in refraining from using those two things (Mandarin and Chinese characters) will I consider you anything but Chinese.


6. ACB left...
Sunday, 11 February 2007 5:23 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

Why, Americans didn't stop drinking tea and speaking English in 1776.

"Only after you are successful as a society in refraining from using those two things (Mandarin and Chinese characters) will I consider you anything but Chinese."

Actually, many Taiwanese nationalists consider themselves to be the true Chinese, and the Mainlanders to merely be people with Chinese characteristics.