Is Japan preparing for a Chinese missile threat?

While Japan is working with the United States to develop the missile defense shield, it's not just because they fear China's militarization, but also because of the threat N. Korea poses which is at times far more unpredictable than the Chinese. The United States just scored a major victory for the missile defense system with the successful interception of its failed satellite with a ship based missile. Nice selling point.

If I were the Japanese government, I would certainly be prepared for missile threat, not just from China, but also from Korea, Taiwan, Russia, US, Iran, ... It is the responsibility of a government to be prepared. Period. And not just missile threat, but all threats, military, economic, social, health, natural disaster.

I always laugh when people talk about US having war plans to attack this country and that. It is well known that Department of Defence of all countries have plans to attack all other countries, and are revised regularly, as resources are available. Not having up-to-date plans is the sure way to be disorganized. It is also good training for military to stay sharp with the skills. Think about a war planning staff which has never develop a war plan going to war. You won't even know where to start.

The ballistic missile portion of Japan's missile defenses mostly aimed at North Korea because that it what North Korea is arming itself with, but the proposal is to expand the missile system to cover additional weapons that North Korea does not possess.

Cruise missiles are a lot more complex than ballistic missiles as they require a much more sophisticated guidance system and much greater accuracy than due to their shorter range and smaller payloads. North Korea cannot build these technologies at present and it is not likely to be able to do so for a very very long time to come due to its limited resources. It also cannot simply buy cruise missiles or missile technologies because the only nations insane enough to sell it to them don't have it themselves. Even France, Russia and Israel aren't crazy enough to sell cruise missiles to North Korea and between them they've sold weapons to just about everybody, including China.

The only reason for Japan to need anti-cruise missile technology would be to defend against China which "just so happens" to be moving to arm itself with said weapons with industrious gusto. The only alternative would be to suggest that Japan is looking to defend itself from American or Taiwanese cruise missiles and I don't think that you are suggesting that America or Taiwan are likely to attack Japan, are you? This one is squarely aimed at China.

"It is well known that Department of Defence of all countries have plans to attack all other countries"

Not Japan, Japan doesn't even have the capability to launch an attack, except maybe against its own backyard. Japan is constitutionally forbidden from possessing weapons designed to wage a war of aggression, it's self defense force is entirely defensive. It doesn't even possess the long ranged weapons required to retaliate. Equally, most European countries don't have plans to attack their neighbors, or anybody else other than maybe the occasional terrorist. Apart from maybe England, which ha a bad reputation, most European countries have defense plans but not all that many actual attack plans. Take Germany for example, it's military is so restricted by red tape and decades of shame that it would struggle to find the will to plan a war against another country, let alone to wage one. While the Dutch are barely allowed to defend themselves on peace keeping missions, let alone attack somebody else.

"always laugh when people talk about US having war plans to attack this country and that."

I think that one of the the primary complaints is that America has plans to attack countries that are not a military threat to it, but which might one day act to diminish America's overseas influence.

"If I were the Japanese government, I would certainly be prepared for missile threat"

If I were the Japanese government I'd spend the money on health care and then tell the US ambassador that if all of those Marines stationed on my territory didn't take care of 100% of my defensive needs out of their own budget then they could ship out and take up space in South Korea instead because the number one reason for somebody to attack Japan is because of the US military presence there. Seriously, Japan's primary fear from China is that it will be dragged into a war between the US and China over Taiwan, and that North Korea would attack it in retaliation for US actions.

In reality, Japan needs a coastguard and enough forces to do peacekeeping work overseas, and that's about it. Domestically, the main use of the Japanese self defense force (it has no army) is to dig out buildings after earthquakes and to build sandbag walls during floods, not to protect from foreign invasion. Japan has no enemies itself, only people who want to blow up Camp Zama.

"Not Japan, Japan doesn't even have the capability to launch an attack, except maybe against its own backyard."

Don't kid yourself. Japan has one of the most modern militaries in the world. While Japan is currently restricted by its Constitution, that is likely to change in the very near future and it won't take much to transform the "Self Defense" force into a full-scale military. With the exception of aircraft carriers, Japan possesses nearly everything the United States does when it comes to their Navy. For that matter, the Japanese have the capability to begin production of nuclear weapons overnight.

Firstly, before making statements like that I'd ask you to actually look at the composition of Japan's military. While it is true that Japan has advanced military technology, it has no force projection capabilities. For example, Japan has no aircraft carriers and possesses no long ranged missiles or bombers. It also possesses only the minimum of transport, ranged logistics and C&C capabilities. Put in the simplest terms, Japan could fight an enemy on its doorstep, but it couldn't take the fight much further. Certainly not to an enemies doorstep. Equally, Japan maintains no overseas forces other than UN Peace keepers. Compare this to the US which has bases all around the world, missiles with ranges measuring in thousands of KM, and a substantial fleet of long ranged bombers, support facilities, and rapid reaction forces. Japan would have trouble sending force to defend its neighbors, let alone to attack them.

Secondly, again, please read up before commenting. Japan is one of the free world's staunchest opponents of nuclear proliferation. It spent the entire cold war with Soviet Russia to its north, Red China to its West and an unpredictable America to its East. It was in effect sandwiched between the three most aggressive and nuclear powers that the world has seen, yet it didn't got nuclear.

You raised the Japanese constitution, but you failed to look any further. For example, in 1956 Japan signed the Basic Atomic Energy Law into its national law which forbid it from engaging in non-civilian nuclear research. It the same year Japan also undertook a policy of zero nuclear aggression which not only forbid it from possessing or developing nuclear arms, but which also actively prohibited allied nations such as the US from bringing any form of nuclear weapon into Japan or through Japanese territory. This policy was formally ratified into law as the Three Non-Nuclear Principles in 1968 and in 1976 Japan signed the global UN non-proliferation treaty.

Saying that Japan has the ability to go nuclear overnight is like saying that the Washington has the ability revoke the constitution by force. It's hypothetically true, but it would require a seismic shift so massive as to be a worse case scenario in some bad action movie.

You would do good to lose the pompous attitude. You falsely assume that I am not aware of Japan's opposition to nuclear weapons or their self-enacted restrictions against the research and development of such weapons - that's basic knowledge that even most Americans are aware of.

I never mentioned anything about Japan's ability or intent to project its military might outside of its region; I merely suggested that you shouldn't be so quick to underestimate the power of its "Self Defense Force". Let's not forget that Japan has considered the idea of taking pre-emptive measures against the North Koreans - a move that is well within Japan's capability.

As for going nuclear, again, I was merely acknowledging the fact that it is possible; a point that even a few of Japan's own politicians have publicly acknowledged.

None of which you put in your original post. I'm sorry, but I have only a basic awareness of the extent/limitations of your knowledge. In my experience, the people who make statements as you did are usually either unaware of these facts or they do not believe them.

Then again, I come to your second paragraph. Japan is not capable of making more than a token strategic strike against North Korea, and it would be very stupid for it to try. It doesn't have the long range missiles needed so it will need to close the distance, which will leave its forces very vulnerable. Japan could maybe take out a nuclear reactor using a missile or a bomb while putting forces in the firing line without C&C support or air cover. It could well end up being a suicide mission. Not least because of Beijing's reaction.

As for Japanese politicians and the nuclear issue, I believe that it was Sato who first officially ordered research on the issue and Hata who first publicly announced that Japan could, hypothetically, build a bomb. I've never denied that Japanese science could potentially build a bomb, in fact I've stated so myself a couple of time. So far the opinion is that it would take Japan just 3 months to construct a nuclear ICBM using its space program and civilian nuclear technology as a base. However in order for this to happen something pretty devastating wold have to have gone down, and I'm talking an above 9/11 event such as a Mainland massacre of Taiwan and a full scale attack on US bases at Okinawa, and even then there would have to be a significant opinion shift in Japan prior to it.

Japan is as likely to build nuclear weapons as the US is likely to give up the constitution.

"Is Japan preparing for a Chinese missile threat?"

Well, according to your article, it looks like that. And I'll probably agree. But even if this is true, I don't see anything wrong with that. In fact, it's probably just prudent for Japan to do so. It's just trying to protect itself after all.

"Japan has no enemies itself, only people who want to blow up Camp Zama."

Well, I don't think that Japan is at war now, but that doesn't mean it won't be involved in wars in the future. And I have this impression that Chinese and Koreans still have very strong anti-Japan sentiments. It also doesn't help that their respective governments (I think) are still actively fanning those sentiments. It's kind of disheartening when I end up chatting with teenage Chinese students who still feel very hurt by the events back in WWII. I mean, it has been more than half a century now. People in my (backwards and 3rd world) country have already more or less moved on despite the fact that we were massacred and raped as well. It doesn't help to dwell on the past.

And it'll be nice if the Japanese government spent the money on health care instead, but all that spending will be all for naught if missiles just ended up blowing up Japanese cities anyway, so, let 'em spend their money on defense as well.

"Japan is as likely to build nuclear weapons as the US is likely to give up the constitution."

I agree in that it is very unlikely for Japan to build nuclear weapons, they being victims of it. But I wouldn't say that they are "as likely to build nuclear weapons as the US is likely to give up the constitution." Right, a seismic shift in opinion, world events, or national sentiment can probably trigger Japan into developing and possessing nuclear weapons. However, I doubt that the US will ever give up its constitution. I have this impression that the US constitution is so central to its identity, that it'll stop being the United States as we know it once it gives it up. If ever Japan did choose to build nuclear weapons, they'll probably just do it in secret and deny that they're doing so or something.

"I don't see anything wrong with that. In fact, it's probably just prudent for Japan to do so. It's just trying to protect itself after all."

True, but it's a taboo topic in Sino-Japanese relations. It's a defining point of China's national psyche to think of itself as the victim. To have someone else act as if it is a (potential) aggressor is anathema to many Chinese. To have Japan: China's ultimate bogeyman aggressor, thinking of China as being a threat is like an American president being caught stuffing the ballot boxes then being chastised by Iran.

If you talk to nationalist Chinese you may find that they will go on and on about China having a strong military that they think will soon be able to directly challenge the US, and yet will not accept that any US move to strengthen its own military would be a defensive move against a threat from China. Instead they would see it as an offensive move to keep China down.

"Well, I don't think that Japan is at war now, but that doesn't mean it won't be involved in wars in the future"

According o the Japanese government the biggest threats of Japan entering a future war come from being dragged into a conflict between the US and China over Taiwan, and from being targeted by North Korea because of Japan's part in the US-South Korea equation. Nobody actually has any real beef with Japan itself. For all of Mainland China and South Korea's bluster against Japan, neither of their governments have any direct quarrels. They are more interested in economics than revenge.

"It doesn't help to dwell on the past."

China lives in the past. It's ingrained in every fiber of China and the Chinese people. The Chinese people are still angry at the British for the opium Wars and for the humiliation served on the Mainland by British Gunships over 100 years ago and that was a much smaller event a much longer time ago. Besides, Beijing purposefully keeps anti-Japanese sentiment alive. It uses Japan as a focus for feelings of discontent in order to distract people from domestic issues.

Look at the anti-Japanese riots. How many actual war veterans were there? In fact how many people over the age of 35 were there? Most of the protesters where educated young males. For them the riots were a displacement activity, an outlet at their feeling of having to run forward just to stay in the same place in a fast moving urban environment that was leaving many of them behind in the race for prosperity.

"all that spending will be all for naught if missiles just ended up blowing up Japanese cities anyway"

Actually, cruise missile are pin-point weapons. They are designed to target installations and infrastructure targets. It's balistic missiles that generally get fired at population centers. They have larger warheads and are a more efficient way of destroying a city.

"I doubt that the US will ever give up its constitution"

If a terrorist ever were to drop a real nuke (not a dirty bomb) on America, I could see the US suspending areas of the constitution. However, if North Korea were to nuke a Japanese city it might actually make Japan more anti-nuclear, not less. What might get Japan to build a nuke would be if America were to collapse and to be replaced as a power by something far less stable. If Japan was in an unstable world without a powerful partner like the US it might feel afraid and alone enough to do it.

"If ever Japan did choose to build nuclear weapons, they'll probably just do it in secret and deny that they're doing so or something."

Something like that wouldn't remain secret for long. Besides, there's nowhere in Japan that you could actually detonate a nuclear bomb without it endangering the public. America had New Mexico, but Japan doesn't have anywhere like that.

What would be more likely would be for America to loan nuclear weapons to Japan, but Japan would have to repeal several laws for that to happen which couldn't be done in secret given Japan's level of democracy. At present Japan won't even allow the US to transit nuclear weapons through its territory.