Missile Defense: Reshaping power in the Pacific at China’s expense

Although recent coverage of the firing of an experimental American anti-missile laser system, designated "First Light", chose to name North Korea as being America’s prime missile concern, and both the official press release and US media reframed from suggesting that America might consider China to be an equal or greater ballistic threat, Beijing will be eyeing this latest developments in America’s "Son of Starwars" program with suspicion because of the possible ramifications an effective missile defense screen might have on the balance of power in the Pacific.

While America is a long way from China and is not a likely target for Chinese missiles, and an effective laser defense system is a long way from realisation, Japan, China’s long time rival in the Pacific, is a firm partner of America’s in the design of the next generation of interceptor missiles, missiles created to lock on to the infra red signature of an incoming threat and destroy it using a conventional warhead, and has conducted joint field runs of an advanced Aegis system fired from facilities in the Pacific, making the prospect of coming through a nuclear or conventional attack unscathed by shooting down incoming missiles a much more of a possibility.

Beijing has on several occasions warned that if such a system was deployed on a large scale in the Pacific it could trigger an arms race, and have warned America that in the interest of regional stability it should not aggressively pursue a Pacific based missile screen, but the system has been endorsed by George Bush as being necessary national security, and is scheduled for installation in Japan in the coming years, despite Chinese objections.

While Japan’s missile defense efforts are primarily directed against aggression from North Korea, its partnership with America, for whom missile defense is now a major issue, and its proximity to the disputed island of Taiwan, are a notable cause for concern in Beijing.

Authorities in Chinese Taiwan have often voiced alarm over the buildup of missiles in Fujian Province, the closes Mainland province to Chinese Taiwan and have used this buildup as the catalyst for the purchase of advanced anti missile systems despite strong objections from Beijing.

If deployed in Chinese Taiwan, as seems inevitable to some, a laser defense system, or the missile interception technology that Japan and the US are jointly developing, could potentially tip the balance of power between Mainland China and Chinese Taiwan away from the Mainland. Blunting its first strike capabilities and forcing it to go into a more direct confrontation with an enemy who still has all of its missiles and command and control facilities intact and ready for a retaliatory strike, and has brought itself the extra time that it needs for US forces to arrive in support.

Taiwan has already purchased a tactical radar system that could be upgraded to enable it to be integrated into a theatre defense system that could bring it under the protection of interceptors based in Japan or launched from US navel vessels positioned hundred of miles from the island.

Arms Race?

So far China, which lacks its own missile defense system, has responded to the purchase of advanced missile systems by Taiwan by calling on the US to stop providing defensive technology to the island, and by moving more missiles into the area to counter losses due to interception, realising the arms race that it warned about.

Wider Deployments

In recent months, America announced the deployment of a fleet of fifteen Aegis anti missile vessels in waters off of the coast of Korea, labelling them as part of a plan to defend against a possible North Korean strike against Japan. These vessels could easily be redeployed to waters south of Japan to defend Taiwan against Chinese missiles.

Both the conventional and laser defense systems are intended to form the basis for the US national defense system and a possible Pacific theatre defense system, with land, sea and air variant of the different systems already in development.

Aegis drills also formed a notable component of "Operation Summer Pulse 04" a US Fleet Response drill conducted in the Pacific this summer that was heavily criticized by China who saw it as being a dry run for the defense of Chinese Taiwan.

Missile interception may prove to be a deciding factor in the next conflict in the Pacific, whether it is over Chinese Taiwan or a conflict between the divided Koreas, and no mater what the objections or the limitations of these systems, it seems likely that the US will push ahead with plans to station interceptor batteries and radar systems across Asia, where they may serve a dual purpose, to protect America, and to blunt China’s long range missile capabilities..

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