An old family friend back in the UK is Japanese. He's very international,
having worked abroad all his life and married a European wife. When I was
home, he was expressing some disatisfaction with current Chinese
nationalistic policies, and he was worried that feelings could spill over
into violence between the two countries.
It is a concern. How far will China push Japan and how far will Japan push
China?
The Chinese government knows how to rub Tokyo up the wrong way and how to
get a reactio out of its natinalists, but it isn't stupid enought to let it
come to blows. Look at the way that it stepped on the Shanghai
demonstrations. Beijing is all hot air, it wants to provoke emotions but
not actions, if it did it wuld have moved on the Senkakus militarily or
made a political demand. Up until know almost of of Beijing's actions have
been done through the media, it has threatened and cussed but it hasn't
called in Tokyo's ambasedor more than a handful of times in the last
decade. Beijing knows that most of its complaints are hogswash, it knows
that Japan really is sorry for what it did, that Japnaese text booksare
actually more accurate about the war than other countries, and it knows
that when you compare Japanese and Chinese brutality, China is just as
bad as Japan. It also knows that Japanese inverstment is a very good thing.
We've had this conversation before. Many times.
Beijing isn't doing anything official mainly because of trade - yes, you're
right. But also because all this extreme nationalistic feeling is designed
to keep the Chinese populace occupied, and away from becoming occupied with
internal politics.
My question is: how long can Beijing play this game before they wind the
Chinese populace up tight enough for violence to break out? Violence that
they can't control.
Also, my Japanese friend was talking about a Japanese/Chinese conflict with
regard to Taiwan. He observed that should anything happen there, then Japan
would definitely be on the side of Taiwan.
However, CCTV9 has recently been spending a lot of time emphasising good
mainland/Taiwan relations. (For example: the the first mainland tour groups
are going to Tainwan, and Taiwanese fruit is now being sold on the
mainland.) Thus we don't need to worry too much at the moment.
WE have had this conversation, but I was answering for the outside world as
well.
"If CCTV 9 is promoting peace it means that Beijing is getting wobbly over
its image, it is trying to convince people that things are OK in the run up
to the 2008 games."
People keep on saying that. First, whenever Beijing was promoting peace and
cooperation, we thought that it was just until the Olympic selection in
2002, now we're thinking it's until the games in 2008. In between 2002 and
2005 they still managed plenty of decent sabre-rattling.
If they manage to keep up the lovey-dovey stuff until 2008, I'll be very
impressed.
With China it is all about image and poor memories.