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Projecting Force: Washington and Taipei fret as Beijing signs deal on transport aircraft.

posted Thursday, 8 September 2005
In a move that is likely to cause concern to ‘interested parties’ China and Russia have this week announced that they have sealed an agreement under-which Russia is to supply the Chinese mainland with high grade military transportation/supply aircraft’s worth an estimated $US1.5 billion.

China’s order, thought to be composed of a total of 38 Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft and Ilyushin-78 heavy tanker aircraft comes shortly after EU officials announced that they were to hold off on lifting their block on arms sales to China, and after the December 2004 announcement that Russia was to sell China 24 Sukhoi-30MK2 air two-seater superiority fighters, and to provide Chinese companies with the ability to produce Sukhoi-27SK for the Chinese Navy.

So, Who’s Worrying?

While the purchase of transportation and tanker aircraft is not in itself an aggressive gesture, and is in line with China’s policy of military reorganization, the new purchase is likely to do little to ease Sino-American and Sino-Taiwanese tensions because of the aircraft’s potential to be used to China’s advantage in any conflict over Chinese Taiwan.

Most analysts agree that one of the factors set against China in probable future conflict situations, most of which revolve around a Sino-US/Sino-Taiwanese conflict, is the critical lack of mobility within the Chinese military machine. With China lacking the capabilities to rapidly transport large quantities of men and machinery rapidly over long distances, difficult terrain or, as is more likely, over large bodies of water to Chinese-Taiwan in the event that it were to declare independence.

Though any improvement in China’s military transportation infrastructure is no doubt of concern to Washington and Taipei, the two Government most likely to be on the receiving end of any combat related movements by the Chinese military, Beijing’s purchase of in flight refueling vessels is likely to be of more concern.

Unlike the US, China currently has no active aircraft carriers and no overseas bases; limiting its ability to engage targets until they come close to its shores. A limitation that can be lifted somewhat by the use of air-tankers

By increasing its use of air-tankers, China can effectively increase the range of its airforce; allowing Chinese fighters and bombers to stay in the air longer and to strike at targets further away from the mainland increased numbers. An ability that could potentially allow them to outflank US and Taiwanese forces, or to engage them long before they are able to strike at targets within China.

Ilyushin-76?

The Ilyushin-76 “Candid" is a 4 engine heavy transport aircraft. The empty weight of the Candid is 72,000kg and it has a maximum take-off weight of 157,000kg. China is already believed to be in possession of approximately 20 Ilyushin-76.

Ilyushin-78?

The Ilyushin-78 “Midas” is a heavy tanker aircraft based on the Ilyushin-76. It is capable of refueling 3 aircraft simultaneously and has a range of 7300 km. The empty weight of the Midas is 40,000kg and it has a maximum take-off weight of 190,000kg.

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