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Rising China: An enemy at Tokyo's Gate?
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posted Sunday, 5 February 2006
Take the fact that Sino-Japanese political relations are at their lowest level since the normalization of relations in 1972, the news that Chinese jets have been stepping efforts to probe Japanese air defenses, and the recent release of a slew of US reports describing China as being 'the next big threat' to security and stability in the Asia Pacific region, it didn't exactly take a rocket scientist to predict what Tokyo's next big statement on Chinese military modernization was going to say. Or did it?
After being challenged by opposition parliamentarians, to officially clarify the government's stance on China - vis-a-vis its military capacity and the threat that it poses - Tokyo has this month declared that the only threat that China posses to Japan is as an economic competitor.
Far from denouncing China as a military threat, it has been announced that 小泉 (Koizumi) administration has adopted a resolution stating that, while China's growing military prowess does indeed give it the ability to pose a threat to Japan, it remains Tokyo's position that China should not be considered to be a threat because it laked any militaristic intent.
Though welcomed by the Japanese people, most of whom remain committed to pacifism. Tokyo's announcement has no doubt caused a certain level of anxiety beyond the country's immediate boarders. Not least of all because it puts Tokyo on a sharply diverging path from Washington in regards to China's so-called 'military buildup'.
Two countries, Two Opinions
In contrast to Tokyo's ethos, that both ability and intent are required for a threat to exist, it is often Washington's policy that military buildup alone is a signal of intent.
Having stated that it believes that China's recent military modernizations are fast surpassing what would be required if China only intended to maintain its national security, Washington has, on several occasions, stated the belief that that China now represents a direct to Japanese security, and has urged Tokyo to 'take steps' to ensure that it is ready for any aggressive move that China might make.
Notably, these 'steps' have recently involved a move to deepen Japan's commitment to the controversial 'son of Starwars' anti-missile system. A system that would provide minimal protection to Japan from sea skimming 'land strike' missiles, such as those now being prepared for deployment on China's next generation of attack submarines, but would provide significantly greater protection to the US mainland from the high flying missiles required to strike the US from countries like as China or North Korea.
Converging Opinions
While Tokyo's policy resolution on any potential 'China threat' diverges considerably from the opinions currently being voiced in and around Washington, it did however agree with them on one key point - The need for China to increase transparency in relation to its armed forces. With Tokyo calling on China, 'not to hold its card so close to its chest', as a means of easing international fears that its recent military modernization effort may harbor a hostile intent, and Washington openly accusing China of leading a campaign of deception in regards to its military.
Both Tokyo and Washington have also called for greater transparency in Chinese military spending, which, according to Washington, is three times higher than Beijing has publicly stated, due to the purposeful exclusion of foreign arms purchases and other military 'expenses' from publicly released figures on Chinese military spending.
Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt?
Despite issuing a statement on the so-called 'China threat', which concluding that there was no such thing, there no doubt remains a strong concern, in Tokyo, that US bases in Japan may be targeted by China, either preemptively, or in retaliation, in the event of a sino-US war over the disputed island of Chinese-Taiwan.
As such, it remains certain that Japan's Defense force, which is forbidden from engaging in acts of aggressions under Japan's pacifist constitution, will continue to maintain a 'select level of readiness' in preparation for a potential Chinese attack against American targets on Japanese-Okinawa or the Home Islands, even if it is Tokyo's policy that China poses no hostil intent, or threat, to Japan under other circumstances.
Ironically, Beijing considers the existence of such Japanese plans, to defend against a Chinese strike on US interests on Japanese territory, to be an aggressive gesture.
After being challenged by opposition parliamentarians, to officially clarify the government's stance on China - vis-a-vis its military capacity and the threat that it poses - Tokyo has this month declared that the only threat that China posses to Japan is as an economic competitor.
Far from denouncing China as a military threat, it has been announced that 小泉 (Koizumi) administration has adopted a resolution stating that, while China's growing military prowess does indeed give it the ability to pose a threat to Japan, it remains Tokyo's position that China should not be considered to be a threat because it laked any militaristic intent.
| "We think that threats become evident when a capability to invade is coupled with an intent to invade" 千葉明 (Chiba Akira), Spokesperson, Foreign Ministry, Japan |
Though welcomed by the Japanese people, most of whom remain committed to pacifism. Tokyo's announcement has no doubt caused a certain level of anxiety beyond the country's immediate boarders. Not least of all because it puts Tokyo on a sharply diverging path from Washington in regards to China's so-called 'military buildup'.
Two countries, Two Opinions
In contrast to Tokyo's ethos, that both ability and intent are required for a threat to exist, it is often Washington's policy that military buildup alone is a signal of intent.
Having stated that it believes that China's recent military modernizations are fast surpassing what would be required if China only intended to maintain its national security, Washington has, on several occasions, stated the belief that that China now represents a direct to Japanese security, and has urged Tokyo to 'take steps' to ensure that it is ready for any aggressive move that China might make.
Notably, these 'steps' have recently involved a move to deepen Japan's commitment to the controversial 'son of Starwars' anti-missile system. A system that would provide minimal protection to Japan from sea skimming 'land strike' missiles, such as those now being prepared for deployment on China's next generation of attack submarines, but would provide significantly greater protection to the US mainland from the high flying missiles required to strike the US from countries like as China or North Korea.
Converging Opinions
While Tokyo's policy resolution on any potential 'China threat' diverges considerably from the opinions currently being voiced in and around Washington, it did however agree with them on one key point - The need for China to increase transparency in relation to its armed forces. With Tokyo calling on China, 'not to hold its card so close to its chest', as a means of easing international fears that its recent military modernization effort may harbor a hostile intent, and Washington openly accusing China of leading a campaign of deception in regards to its military.
| "The outside world has little knowledge of Chinese motivations and decision-making and of key capabilities supporting PLA modernization." The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (2005), Department of Defense, US |
Both Tokyo and Washington have also called for greater transparency in Chinese military spending, which, according to Washington, is three times higher than Beijing has publicly stated, due to the purposeful exclusion of foreign arms purchases and other military 'expenses' from publicly released figures on Chinese military spending.
| "According to some estimates, [China's Official Military Budget] does not include foreign weapons procurement (up to $3.0 billion annually from Russia alone), expenses for the paramilitary People’s Armed Police, funding to support nuclear weapon stockpiles and the Second Artillery, subsidies to defense industries, some defense-related research and development, and local, provincial, or regional contributions to the armed forces. Combined, these additional monies could increase actual defense expenditures by two to three times the publicly available figure, suggesting the defense sector in China could receive up to $90.0 billion in 2005, making China the third largest defense spender in the world after the United States and Russia, The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China (2005) |
Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt?
Despite issuing a statement on the so-called 'China threat', which concluding that there was no such thing, there no doubt remains a strong concern, in Tokyo, that US bases in Japan may be targeted by China, either preemptively, or in retaliation, in the event of a sino-US war over the disputed island of Chinese-Taiwan.
As such, it remains certain that Japan's Defense force, which is forbidden from engaging in acts of aggressions under Japan's pacifist constitution, will continue to maintain a 'select level of readiness' in preparation for a potential Chinese attack against American targets on Japanese-Okinawa or the Home Islands, even if it is Tokyo's policy that China poses no hostil intent, or threat, to Japan under other circumstances.
Ironically, Beijing considers the existence of such Japanese plans, to defend against a Chinese strike on US interests on Japanese territory, to be an aggressive gesture.
View Comments/Add a Comment (12)
1. xano left...
Thursday, 16 February 2006 5:52 pm
Maybe you're right, but it'd be nice is Aso stopped his rants. It's
embarassing for a foreign minister and embarasses all the moderates in
China.
2. ACB left...
Saturday, 18 February 2006 2:03 am :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com
"it'd be nice is Aso stopped his rants."
3. Kimjihyun left...
Wednesday, 17 May 2006 6:44 pm
China won't invade Japan, what has Japan have to offer?
4. ACB left...
Thursday, 18 May 2006 3:43 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com
While China won't invade the home islands, there are genuine fears that it
might move against some of the outer islands, and that it might attack US
bases in Japan during a war over Taiwan.
5. Kimjihyun left...
Thursday, 18 May 2006 3:56 pm
umm, hey ABC, China dun need to invade Taiwan, it's part of China?! And
yeah, Japan's outer island officially belongs to both China and
Korea..Diaoyutai and Dokdo.
6. Kimjihyun left...
Thursday, 18 May 2006 3:56 pm
umm, hey ABC, China dun need to invade Taiwan, it's part of China?! And
yeah, Japan's outer island officially belongs to both China and
Korea..Diaoyutai and Dokdo.
7. ACB left...
Thursday, 18 May 2006 4:14 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com
"China dun need to invade Taiwan, it's part of China"
8. Kimjihyun left...
Saturday, 20 May 2006 1:33 pm
so why would China attack Taiwan which is part of their terrotry
9. Kimjihyun left...
Saturday, 20 May 2006 1:33 pm
so why would China attack Taiwan which is part of their terrotry
10. ACB left...
Saturday, 20 May 2006 4:37 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com
Now that is a loaded question if ever I heard one.
12. The Angry Chinese Blogger left...
Sunday, 21 May 2006 6:57 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com
I'd rather that there weren't sides to take. China, Japan and Taiwan are
today like France Germany and England were early last century.