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Tokyo denies "invasion rehearsals"

posted Saturday, 6 January 2007
Recent joint Japanese-US navy exercise; dubbed operation Annualex 18G, were part of general preparedness drills and were neither  a rehearsal  of tactics that would be used to repulse a potential invasion by Chinese forces, nor were they indicative of any specific threat.

So says a statement by Tokyo in response to a reports in the Japanese media claiming that the joint maritime exercise , held in November, included a simulated war situation between China and Japan, in which Chinese forces, designated by the color orange, had forcefully annexed the South Western tip of the Japanese island chain.

Tokyo's statement mirrors a similar statement issued by Washington.

Annualex 18G

According to US sources, Annualex 18G was a joint training exercise  encompassing 95 vessels, including those of the USS Kitty Hawk battle group, which was aimed at rehearsing a variety of general senarios that were not aimed at a specific country or theater.

 
"There is no specific threat, no this-country-that-country."

Doug McCain, Rear Admiral, US
 

Analysis

Reports indicate that a significant proportion of Annualex 18G was assigned to simulated blockade actions and included actions to simulate the search and seizure of foreign owned vessels.

Given the current geopolitical situation, such simulations are more likely to be preparation for a future conflict with North Korea, than China.

Although both China and Japan have contingency plans in place for conflict situations involving the other, the public discussion and the conducting of exercise in preparation for a conflict remains an especially sensitive topic, even by Sino-Japanese standards. With Japan maintaining a constant watch on the military actions of its larger neighbor and harboring concerns that it may be dragged into a war between China and Chinese-Taiwan, and China reacting with concern at any move to change the readiness and deployment of Japan's forces.

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1. China Law Blog left...
Sunday, 7 January 2007 10:57 am :: http://www.chinalawblog.com

Am I missing something? Isn't this really no big deal?


2. ACB left...
Sunday, 7 January 2007 5:14 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

It depends on who you are.

China usually takes it real personal if Japan even hints that it is uncomfortable with the idea that its big strong nuclear armed neighbor might be less than friendly all the time.


3. dave zimmerman left...
Tuesday, 9 January 2007 3:49 am

Today's cover story at http://www.pinr.com/report.php has a fuller version of this story. The article also contains a link to a story on the Senkaku/ Diaoyu Islands, which are the "South Western tip of the Japanese island chain" you refer to.

PRC claims that it's enhanced fleet is little more than an enhanced coastal defence force. This enhancement enables them to defend coasts far from their own. However, the purpose of a blue water navy is to project power. I think the part of the Chinese buildup that frightens people in the area the most is the development of amphibious capability. (www.jamestown.org/public ations_details.php?volume_id=415&issue_id=3837&article_id=2371393)

Once in a while, when I'm in Chinatown, I take a look at a Chinese magazine devoted to military hardware. All I understand is that there are pictures of the PLA using things they say they will never use. Whether the purpose is to increase national pride or intimidate neighbors is unimportant. There is nothing to ensure the outbreak of an arms race like the perception that the race is already on, and your side is losing.


4. ACB left...
Tuesday, 9 January 2007 8:52 pm :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

While don't support support militarization, and would prefer it it these arms buildups didn't happen, I usually like to make a couple of points in relation to China, not necessarily to you, but to people who might be reading this page in general.

1) China lacks force projection capabilities. It can transport a moderate contingent of men and machines a short way from its borders, but it can't push them much further, and it can't defend them when it does (few long range submarines, 0 aircraft carriers, insufficient aegis vessels etc). In short, it can hit Taiwan hard if it uses land based planes/missiles, and it can land troops their afterwards, but it can't fight any further away and it certainly can't mount anything even close to the campaigns that the US is waging in Iraq, for example.

2) Until recently, of China's military has been outdated, backwards and based on the concept of fighting "A people's war" (a war of attrition using load of semi skilled troops to overwhelm and wear down an enemy on Chinese soil). What people see as being an arms buildup is actually nothing more than a moderniation program. China is not building a bigger military (it is actually getting smaller) it is simply tooling itself up with the same technology and tactics that Japan and the West have been using for decades.

3) Amphibious tanks and other blatantly anti-Taiwan hardware are only a small part of China's efforts. A lot has been defense orientated. Radar systems to detect incoming threats, missile systems to stop them, distributed command systems to survive first strike situations, and R&D into anti-satellite and anti-stealth, etc technology to mitigate the advantage that a more technologically advanced attacker would have. In short, China is primarily concerned at surviving a war against it, not launch one against its neighbors.

4) Face and Trade. China wants to think that it could take Taiwan quickly and easily because of face, but it would really rather not because of trade. It would take something quite dumb and easily avoided on the part of Taiwan for China to actually attack.


5. Tim left...
Friday, 26 January 2007 9:26 am

Interesting view, but lacks depth. Very extensive info and analysis on Sino-Japanese issue is given by the provocative Chinese journalist George Zhibin Gu in his new book: China and the New World Order.


6. The Angry Chinese Blogger left...
Sunday, 28 January 2007 1:08 am :: http://angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com

Depth requires time and effort.

Feeling drained so can't devote either.


7. Tokyo left...
Wednesday, 6 June 2007 2:44 am :: http://slouchingtowardserfdom.blogspot.c

It doesn't make sense to expect a country the size of China to completely reject its military as a way of demonstrating its power on the world scene. Japan is the only country in the history of the world really, to go without military forces at the same time it experienced such economic power. And even then it could do so only with explicit American support.


8. ACB left...
Wednesday, 6 June 2007 3:30 am

1) Japan didn't need American support, America needed Asian base. China has only recently had the military power to threaten Japan with anything other than missiles, North Korea still isn't a real threat and countries like Britain and the other European nations who once dominated Asia lost most of their power during the late 1930s and never regained it. 2) Japan has one of the most advanced and well trained military in the world. The Imperial Army, Navy and Air Force were simply been renamed "self defense" forces. In reality, Japan's lack of a military extends only to long ranged offensive weapons such as missiles and bombers and a ban on exports. There is technically a clause prohibiting the deployment of troops in anger, though this was pretty much broken a couple of years ago when Japan joined the Western coalition. 3) The mainstay of American support was American citizens buying Sony walkmen.