US, Japan concerned by 'mystery' submarine: But all eyes turn to China

Japanese Defense Minister Ono Yoshinoro invoked a rare "Naval security action" earlier this week at the reported incursion of an unknown submarine into Japanese waters.

The vessel, believed to be a nuclear powered Chinese 091 Han-Class submarine with a total displacement of 5,500 tons (4,500 tons + ballast) when diving, was detected on Wednesday and is believed to have traveled through Japanese wasters for approximately three hours as it maneuvered close to the Sakishima islands belonging to Japanese Okinawa, coming approximately 300KM to the south west of the island of Okinawa, home to a sizable US military installation.

A Japanese military spokesman confirmed that the submarine was under surveillance as it traveled though Japanese waters and that it was shadowed by a Destroyer and a specialized PC-3 surveillance aircraft. The pursuing forces had wanted the vessel to raise its colors, but no attempt was made to sink the vessel or to force it to surface.

Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro expressed concern over the indecent which comes in the midst of delicate talks with Washington over the realignment of US stationed in Japan under the 1960 US-Japan security treaty which have promoted calls for caution from the Chinese Mainland who are wary of a possible shift in power in the Pacific area that could marginalize it in some issue by the an increased US military presence.

The matter further complicates an earlier sighting of two Chinese vessels in international waters several hundred Kilometers South of the Kyushu, the southern most of Japan’s main islands.

One of the vessels was believed to have been a submarine salvage/rescue ship and the other a towing vessel, prompting speculation that the submarine sighted this week may have been in distress or responding to a distress call from another submarine in the area.

Japanese military spokesmen have so far said that they know of no firm links between the salvage vessels and the submarine, but it would not be the first time that a Chinese submarine had run into difficulties in the waters surrounding Japan.

Though the origins of the submarine remain officially unknown, Cabinet Secretary Hosada Hiroyuki later announced that Japan would "take the appropriate step" once the identity of the vessel was confirmed, though he did not elaborate further it would be unlikely that Japanese forces would attempt to board sink any Chinese military vessels found in Japanese waters.

Japanese and US military sources have become increasingly worried by China’s submarine capabilities in recent years after high technology export relaxations on the communist state allowed it to purchase advanced mapping equipment, and it begun a program to map the waters surrounding Japan.

Fears over China’s purchase and use of undersea mapping equipment were confirmed in late 2003, when a Chinese submarine described as being ‘an older model’ penetrated shallow waters off of Japan that many intelligence sources believed were too dangerous for even more modern Chinese submarines to safely navigate.

While China has little to gain from blockading or attacking Japan, both the Japanese defense agency and embedded US forces in Japan have expressed concern over how China may respond in the event of hostilities over Taiwan, and Japanese officials have worried whether they could remain neutral in the conflict even if they were not bound to act.

While Japan’s constitution prevents it from taking part in any pre emptive action against China over Taiwan, and limits its participation in any open conflict unless the country come under direct attack, analysts worry that the large US military presence on Okinawa and on Japan’s main islands may be targeted by China in the event of a conflict.

Any US response to a Chinese action against Taiwan would, by necessity of distance from other US outposts, likely come from within Japanese territory, or be re supplied by US bases in Japan, and the presence of even a single Chinese submarine close to Okinawa or other outposts could at best, delay the arrival of US forces by tying up valuable resources and at worse, cripple or destroy a carrier or other capital ship, resulting in heavy casualties.

Another other possibility is that a Chinese submarine, ship or aircraft might launch a direct missile attack against attack against US bases in Japan to preempt a US response to an attack on Taiwan. Under these circumstances Japan would no longer be bound by its pacifist constitution, but would be hesitant to act.

Given current levels of animosity towards Japan, because of the internationally and internally condemned actions of its war time government, the destruction of Chinese aircraft, submarine or ship by Japanese forces, even as part of a defensive measure, could create a wide spread backlash against Japan and set the Sino-Japanese reconciliation process back a generation and would not sit easily with the Japanese people who have been committed to their status as a pacifist nation since the fall of the Japanese military government after the Nagasaki and Hiroshima attacks.

The Chinese 091 Han-Class submarine is thought to carry torpedoes and sea skimming anti ship missile. They have a crew compliment of 75, including seamen and officers, and a maximum speed of 25 knots.

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